Map belief splits in spreadsheet

Your assumption list from chapter 1 is linear, but people aren't. Different prospects doubt different assumptions. That's where segments emerge.

The compliance officer believes employees are a risk but doubts training effectiveness. The breach-reactive CEO believes training works but doesn't know which vendor to choose. Same product, different doubt, different segment.

Open a spreadsheet. You're going to map where beliefs split, trace paths through those splits, and end up with 3 to 5 segments that represent meaningfully different buying journeys.

Look at your assumption list. Where do different people start doubting different things?

For cybersecurity training, most people believe "employees are a security risk" if they're even looking at training. The split happens at solution level: does training actually work?

Create your first column: "Believes employees are risk". Everyone in your market goes in this column because if they don't believe this, they're not your market.

Second column: "Believes training works". This is your first split. Some people believe it (breach-reactive CEOs who've seen it work elsewhere), some doubt it (compliance officers who need proof).

For lead gen tools, the first split is often "believes outbound still works". Paid-skeptic marketers don't believe this. LinkedIn-first marketers believe in outbound but think LinkedIn beats email. Tool-choosers believe in email and are just picking the right platform.

Mark where each assumption becomes a split point. If everyone believes it, it's not a split. If different people doubt it, that's a fork in the path.

Each split becomes a new column. When beliefs fork, create two columns: one for people who believe the assumption, one for people who doubt it.

Example for cybersecurity training:

• Column 1: Believes employees are risk (everyone)
• Column 2a: Believes training works (breach-reactive, proactive)
• Column 2b: Doubts training works (compliance-driven)

Example for lead gen tools:

• Column 1: Believes paid ads too expensive (everyone in market)
• Column 2a: Believes outbound still works (splits into LinkedIn vs email)
• Column 2b: Doubts outbound works (paid-skeptic, needs proof)
• Column 3a: Believes email beats LinkedIn (splits into list building vs buying data)
• Column 3b: Believes LinkedIn beats email (different segment entirely)

Don't create a split for every assumption. Only split where different groups of real people diverge. If 95% of your market believes an assumption, just include it in the previous column. You're looking for meaningful forks, not theoretical branches.

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Each path from left to right through your spreadsheet is one segment. Follow the belief chain.

Cybersecurity training paths:

• Path 1: Believes risk exists, doubts training works, needs regulatory compliance anyway (compliance officer segment)
• Path 2: Believes risk exists, believes training works, choosing between vendors, needs quick implementation (breach-reactive CEO segment)
• Path 3: Believes risk exists, believes training works, believes in vendor, needs ROI proof for board (proactive CSO segment)

Lead gen tools paths:

• Path 1: Believes paid is expensive, doubts outbound works, needs proof it still delivers (paid-skeptic segment)
• Path 2: Believes in outbound, thinks LinkedIn beats email, needs email advantage proof (LinkedIn-first segment)
• Path 3: Believes in email, doubts list building worth, needs list ROI proof (list-skeptic segment)
• Path 4: Believes in email and lists, choosing tools, needs feature/result comparison (tool-chooser segment)

You should end up with 3 to 5 distinct paths. More than 5 and you're splitting too granularly. Fewer than 3 and you're not segmenting enough.

Give each path a name that captures the core doubt or context. Avoid demographic labels. Focus on the belief gap.

Good segment names reference the doubt:

• Compliance-driven (doubt is effectiveness, but need it anyway)
• Breach-reactive (doubt is vendor choice, context is urgency)
• Proactive (doubt is ROI justification to board)
• Paid-skeptic (doubt is whether outbound still works)
• LinkedIn-first (doubt is whether email beats LinkedIn)
• List-skeptic (doubt is whether list building beats buying data)

Bad segment names are demographic or generic:

• Enterprise buyers (doesn't tell you the doubt)
• SMB segment (too broad)
• Marketing managers (role, not belief)

The name should immediately tell you what belief gap you're addressing. When you're writing ad creative or landing pages later, the segment name should trigger "oh, this group doubts X, so I need to prove X".

You've now mapped 3 to 5 belief-based segments by tracing paths through assumption splits. Each segment represents a different doubt pattern in your market.