For sales managers

Sales managers need to forecast revenue accurately, set realistic goals for the team, track deal progression, and identify forecast risks early. Without systematic forecasting, you're guessing whether you'll hit the number until month-end reveals reality.

This chapter implements sales goal tracking for individuals and teams, builds weighted pipeline forecasts that account for deal probability, tracks deal progression velocity to predict when deals will close, and establishes forecast accuracy management so predictions improve over time.

Accurate forecasting isn't just about satisfying leadership's requests for numbers - it's about knowing whether you need to intervene (accelerate deals, add resources, adjust targets) before it's too late to course-correct.

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Sales goals create accountability and provide clear targets for reps to chase.

Set team quota

Navigate to Reports > Goals > Create goal.

Goal: Quarterly team revenue

Goal type: Deal revenue

Metric: Sum of Closed Won deal amount

Target: £1,000,000 (example - adjust to your actual team quota)

Time period: Quarterly

Assigned to: Sales team (all reps)

This is your overall team target for the quarter.

Cascade to individual quotas

Team quota should equal sum of individual quotas.

If team quota is £1M and you have 5 reps:

• Enterprise AEs (2 reps): £250k each = £500k total
• Mid-market AEs (2 reps): £150k each = £300k total
• SMB AEs (1 rep): £200k

Total: £1M

Create individual goals:

Navigate to Goals > Create goal.

Goal type: Deal revenue

Target: Individual quota amount

Assigned to: Specific rep

Repeat for each team member.

Now each rep sees their personal quota when they check goals.

Activity goals (optional)

Beyond revenue, set activity goals:

Calls per week: Target 30 calls (or whatever your team's standard is)

Meetings per week: Target 10 meetings

Deals created per month: Target 8 new opportunities

These activity goals are leading indicators. If reps hit activity goals, they'll hit revenue goals with a lag.

Create activity goals: Navigate to Goals > Create goal.

Goal type: Custom metric (Activities, Deals created)

Target: Activity count

Assigned to: Individual rep

These goals help identify problems early. If a rep's call volume drops, their pipeline will dry up in 4-6 weeks. Catch the activity problem now before it becomes a revenue problem.

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Weighted forecasts account for probability that deals close. Not all pipeline is equal - £100k in late-stage deals is more likely to close than £100k in early-stage deals.

Create weighted forecast report

Navigate to Reports > Create report > Deals.

Name: "Weighted pipeline forecast."

Calculation:

For each deal: Weighted value = Deal amount × Stage probability

Example:

• Deal A: £50k in Proposal stage (40% probability) = £20k weighted
• Deal B: £80k in Negotiating stage (70% probability) = £56k weighted
• Deal C: £30k in Contract sent stage (85% probability) = £25.5k weighted

Total weighted pipeline: £101.5k

This £101.5k is your realistic forecast based on historical close rates at each stage.

Segment forecast by close date

Not all pipeline closes this quarter. Segment by close date:

Report 1: Closing this month (weighted)

Filters:

• Close date is this month
• Deal stage is not Closed Won or Closed Lost

Calculation: Sum of (Deal amount × Probability)

This shows what you'll likely close this month.

Report 2: Closing this quarter (weighted)

Filters:

• Close date is this quarter
• Deal stage is not Closed Won or Closed Lost

Same calculation. This is your quarterly forecast.

Forecast by rep

Create same weighted forecast report segmented by deal owner.

This shows each rep's likely closing revenue. Compare to their individual quota:

Example:

• Rep A quota: £250k, Weighted forecast: £280k (110% to quota - on track)
• Rep B quota: £150k, Weighted forecast: £95k (63% to quota - at risk)

This identifies who needs help accelerating deals before quarter-end.

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Understanding how fast deals move predicts when they'll close.

Deal velocity by stage

Create report: "Average time in stage."

Navigate to Reports > Create report > Deals.

Metrics: Average time in each deal stage

Filters: Close date within last 90 days

Segmented by: Deal stage

This shows typical progression speed.

Example results:

• Discovery: 7 days average
• Demo: 5 days average
• Proposal: 21 days average
• Negotiating: 28 days average
• Contract sent: 10 days average

Total average sales cycle: 71 days.

Predict close dates based on velocity

If a deal just entered Proposal stage, historical data says it will spend 21 days there, then 28 in Negotiating, then 10 in Contract sent = 59 more days until close.

Use this velocity data to:

• Set realistic close dates (don't let reps say everything closes "this month")
• Identify deals moving slower than average (require intervention)
• Forecast pipeline conversion timing

Stage progression report

Track which deals are progressing vs stalling:

Create report: "Deals by time in current stage."

Metrics: Count of deals

Segmented by: "Days in current stage" (0-7 days, 8-14 days, 15-30 days, 31-60 days, 60+ days)

Filters: Deal stage is not Closed Won or Closed Lost

Deals in current stage 60+ days are stalled. Review each one. Either:

• Intervene to unstick them
• Update close date to realistic future date
• Mark closed-lost if deal is dead

This report prevents deals from rotting in pipeline for months.

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Forecasting is a skill. Track accuracy and improve over time.

Record forecast vs actuals

At start of each month/quarter, document your forecast:

Forecast for Q4 2025:

• Best case: £1.2M
• Most likely (weighted): £950k
• Worst case: £750k
• Commit: £850k (what you tell leadership you'll deliver)

Save this record. Don't change it mid-quarter.

Compare at period end

When quarter closes, compare forecast to actual:

Q4 2025 Results:

• Actual closed: £920k
• Forecast (most likely): £950k
• Accuracy: 97%

If you consistently forecast within ±10% of actuals, you're accurate.

Analyse forecast misses

When forecast was significantly wrong, analyse why:

Upside surprise (actual > forecast):

• Which unexpected deals closed?
• Why weren't they in forecast? (Moved faster than expected? New deals appeared and closed quickly?)
• Should you be more aggressive in forecasting?

Downside miss (actual < forecast):

• Which expected deals didn't close?
• Why not? (Slipped to next quarter? Closed-lost? Still negotiating?)
• Were close dates unrealistic?
• Were stage probabilities too optimistic?
• Did reps sandbag (hide pipeline to appear to overperform)?

Document learnings. Adjust forecasting methodology based on findings.

Improve forecast process

Monthly forecast calls:

Hold forecast calls with each rep mid-month and month-end:

Questions to ask:

• Which deals will close this month?
• What gives you confidence they'll close?
• What could prevent them from closing?
• Are close dates realistic or aspirational?
• Show me activities supporting progression (recent calls, emails, meetings)

Push reps to justify their forecast with evidence, not gut feeling.

Commit vs best case vs most likely:

Teach reps to forecast three scenarios:

Commit: What I'm confident will close. I'll be fired if this doesn't happen.

Most likely: Weighted forecast. What data says will probably close.

Best case: If everything goes perfectly, this is the upside.

You tell leadership "Commit" number. If you beat it, great. If you miss Commit, you've failed.

Most likely is your internal working forecast. Best case shows potential upside if deals accelerate.

Forecast accuracy as performance metric

Track each rep's forecast accuracy over time.

Create report: "Forecast accuracy by rep."

For each rep, compare:

• What they forecasted at start of month
• What they actually closed at month-end
• Accuracy percentage

Reps consistently accurate (±10%) are trustworthy. Reps consistently over-forecasting are either bad at qualifying or sandbag intentionally. Reps consistently under-forecasting are sandbagging to make themselves look good when they "beat" forecast.

Coach reps toward accuracy, not conservatism or optimism.

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Your sales goals and revenue forecasting are now fully configured. Individual and team quotas create clear targets, weighted pipeline forecasts predict likely outcomes based on deal probability, velocity tracking shows how fast deals progress and when they'll close, and forecast accuracy management improves predictions over time.

Accurate forecasting enables better business decisions. Leadership can plan hiring, marketing spend, and operational investments based on credible revenue projections. You can identify problems early (pipeline coverage too low, deals stalling, reps behind pace) and intervene before it's too late to course-correct.

You've now completed the full HubSpot for Managers playbook. You have visibility into team activities without micromanaging, marketing goals and dashboards that prove ROI, and sales forecasting that predicts revenue accurately. Use these tools to lead your team toward consistent goal achievement.